{
 "source_issue_id": "2026-10-09",
 "issue_date": "2026-10-09",
 "created_at": "2026-10-09T10:30:00+08:00",
 "data_asof": {
  "US": "2026-10-08",
  "USF": "2026-10-08",
  "CN": "2026-10-08",
  "HK": "2026-10-08",
  "JP": "2026-10-08",
  "KR": "2026-10-08",
  "TW": "2026-10-08"
 },
 "note": "上期滚动命中率30%，本期阈值加宽至约1.2倍日均波动；避开未结清单边阈值与区间不相容标的",
 "rows": [
  {
   "no": 1,
   "scope": "美债",
   "judgment": "美10Y∈5.17%—5.27%",
   "trigger": "10月8日10年期收5.22%，较前日降6bp；风险偏好回落与油价大涨并存",
   "metric": "美10Y",
   "invalid": "越界失效",
   "deadline": "10/13美债",
   "check": {
    "key": "ust.10y",
    "op": "between",
    "value": [
     5.169,
     5.271
    ],
    "market": "USB",
    "by": "2026-10-13"
   },
   "multiple": 1.21,
   "multiple_text": "1.21/1.21（日均波动 0.81%，近20日）",
   "vol": {
    "avg_pct": 0.81,
    "n": 20,
    "window": [
     "2026-09-11",
     "2026-10-08"
    ],
    "src": "美国财政部",
    "dist_pct": [
     0.977,
     0.977
    ],
    "range_est": 1.533
   }
  },
  {
   "no": 2,
   "scope": "A股",
   "judgment": "上证∈3,787—3,837",
   "trigger": "10月8日沪指跌0.79%报3811.90点；节后首日放量下跌",
   "metric": "上证",
   "invalid": "越界失效",
   "deadline": "10/12 A股",
   "check": {
    "key": "cn.sse.close",
    "op": "between",
    "value": [
     3787.0,
     3837.0
    ],
    "market": "CN",
    "by": "2026-10-12"
   },
   "multiple": 1.21,
   "multiple_text": "1.21/1.22（日均波动 0.54%，近20日）",
   "vol": {
    "avg_pct": 0.54,
    "n": 20,
    "window": [
     "2026-09-03",
     "2026-10-08"
    ],
    "src": "腾讯证券 日K",
    "dist_pct": [
     0.6532,
     0.6585
    ],
    "range_est": 1.048
   }
  },
  {
   "no": 3,
   "scope": "港股",
   "judgment": "恒指∈23,563—24,008",
   "trigger": "10月8日恒指跌1.43%报23785.79点，恒生科技创年内新低",
   "metric": "恒指",
   "invalid": "越界失效",
   "deadline": "10/12港股",
   "check": {
    "key": "hk.hsi.close",
    "op": "between",
    "value": [
     23563.0,
     24008.0
    ],
    "market": "HK",
    "by": "2026-10-12"
   },
   "multiple": 1.2,
   "multiple_text": "1.20/1.20（日均波动 0.78%，近20日）",
   "vol": {
    "avg_pct": 0.78,
    "n": 20,
    "window": [
     "2026-09-10",
     "2026-10-08"
    ],
    "src": "腾讯证券 日K",
    "dist_pct": [
     0.9367,
     0.9342
    ],
    "range_est": 1.379
   }
  },
  {
   "no": 4,
   "scope": "专题：江特电机",
   "judgment": "江特∈8.31—8.65",
   "trigger": "10月8日江特跌1.51%报8.48元，碳酸锂主连跌0.95%报117300元/吨",
   "metric": "江特",
   "invalid": "越界失效",
   "deadline": "10/12 A股",
   "check": {
    "key": "s002176.close",
    "op": "between",
    "value": [
     8.31,
     8.65
    ],
    "market": "CN",
    "by": "2026-10-12"
   },
   "multiple": 1.21,
   "multiple_text": "1.21/1.21（日均波动 1.65%，近20日）",
   "vol": {
    "avg_pct": 1.65,
    "n": 20,
    "window": [
     "2026-09-03",
     "2026-10-08"
    ],
    "src": "腾讯证券 日K",
    "dist_pct": [
     2.0047,
     2.0047
    ],
    "range_est": 2.932
   }
  },
  {
   "no": 5,
   "scope": "自选：标普500",
   "judgment": "标普∈7,717—7,814",
   "trigger": "10月8日标普跌0.47%报7765.36点；OpenAI营收口径冲击科技股",
   "metric": "标普",
   "invalid": "越界失效",
   "deadline": "10/12美股",
   "check": {
    "key": "us.spx.close",
    "op": "between",
    "value": [
     7717.0,
     7814.0
    ],
    "market": "US",
    "by": "2026-10-12"
   },
   "multiple": 1.2,
   "multiple_text": "1.20/1.20（日均波动 0.52%，近20日）",
   "vol": {
    "avg_pct": 0.52,
    "n": 20,
    "window": [
     "2026-09-11",
     "2026-10-08"
    ],
    "src": "腾讯证券 日K",
    "dist_pct": [
     0.6228,
     0.6264
    ],
    "range_est": 0.938
   }
  }
 ]
}