{
 "source_issue_id": "2026-10-08",
 "issue_date": "2026-10-08",
 "created_at": "2026-10-08T06:30:00+08:00",
 "data_asof": {
  "US": "2026-10-07",
  "USF": "2026-10-06",
  "CN": "2026-09-30",
  "HK": "2026-10-07",
  "JP": "2026-10-07",
  "KR": "2026-10-07",
  "TW": "2026-10-07"
 },
 "note": "阈值按前两期滚动命中率均≥90%的重设规则取0.8–0.9倍日均波动",
 "rows": [
  {
   "no": 1,
   "scope": "美债",
   "judgment": "美债10年期收益率10月8日收于5.24%—5.32%",
   "trigger": "10月7日10年期收5.28%，较前日升1bp；10年期拍卖投标倍数2.77倍；30年期续发拍卖定于北京时间10月9日01:00",
   "metric": "财政部曲线10年期",
   "invalid": "高于5.32%或低于5.24%",
   "deadline": "10月8日美债收盘",
   "check": {
    "key": "ust.10y",
    "op": "between",
    "value": [
     5.24,
     5.32
    ],
    "market": "USB",
    "by": "2026-10-08"
   },
   "multiple": 0.86,
   "multiple_text": "0.86/0.86（日均波动 0.88%，近20日）",
   "vol": {
    "avg_pct": 0.88,
    "n": 20,
    "window": [
     "2026-09-10",
     "2026-10-07"
    ],
    "src": "美国财政部",
    "dist_pct": [
     0.7576,
     0.7576
    ],
    "range_est": 1.515
   }
  },
  {
   "no": 2,
   "scope": "A股",
   "judgment": "创业板指10月8日收于3,102—3,168点",
   "trigger": "9月30日创业板指跌0.23%报3135.28点，接近近20日低点3125.20点；假期内美股创新高后10月7日回落",
   "metric": "创业板指收盘",
   "invalid": "高于3,168点或低于3,102点",
   "deadline": "10月8日A股收盘",
   "check": {
    "key": "cn.cyb.close",
    "op": "between",
    "value": [
     3102.0,
     3168.0
    ],
    "market": "CN",
    "by": "2026-10-08"
   },
   "multiple": 0.85,
   "multiple_text": "0.86/0.85（日均波动 1.23%，近20日）",
   "vol": {
    "avg_pct": 1.23,
    "n": 20,
    "window": [
     "2026-09-02",
     "2026-09-30"
    ],
    "src": "腾讯证券 日K",
    "dist_pct": [
     1.0615,
     1.0436
    ],
    "range_est": 2.395
   }
  },
  {
   "no": 3,
   "scope": "港股",
   "judgment": "恒指10月8日收于23,985—24,276点",
   "trigger": "10月7日恒指跌0.62%报24130.50点，科网与存储股走弱；港股通10月8日恢复",
   "metric": "恒指收盘",
   "invalid": "高于24,276点或低于23,985点",
   "deadline": "10月8日港股收盘",
   "check": {
    "key": "hk.hsi.close",
    "op": "between",
    "value": [
     23985.0,
     24276.0
    ],
    "market": "HK",
    "by": "2026-10-08"
   },
   "multiple": 0.85,
   "multiple_text": "0.85/0.85（日均波动 0.71%，近20日）",
   "vol": {
    "avg_pct": 0.71,
    "n": 20,
    "window": [
     "2026-09-09",
     "2026-10-07"
    ],
    "src": "腾讯证券 日K",
    "dist_pct": [
     0.603,
     0.603
    ],
    "range_est": 1.344
   }
  },
  {
   "no": 4,
   "scope": "专题：江特电机",
   "judgment": "江特电机10月8日跑输深证成指至少1.22个百分点",
   "trigger": "9月30日江特电机涨5.0%而碳酸锂主连跌0.3%、收于近20日最低，股价与锂价背离",
   "metric": "两者涨跌幅之差",
   "invalid": "差值大于−1.22个百分点",
   "deadline": "10月8日A股收盘",
   "check": {
    "key": "s002176.close",
    "op": "underperform",
    "vs": "cn.szse.close",
    "margin": 1.22,
    "market": "CN",
    "by": "2026-10-08"
   },
   "multiple": 0.85,
   "multiple_text": "0.85（日均波动 1.43%，近20日）",
   "vol": {
    "avg_pct": 1.43,
    "n": 20,
    "window": [
     "2026-09-02",
     "2026-09-30"
    ],
    "src": "腾讯证券 日K",
    "dist_pct": [
     1.22
    ],
    "range_est": null
   }
  },
  {
   "no": 5,
   "scope": "自选：韩国KOSPI",
   "judgment": "KOSPI 10月8日收于6,723—6,886点",
   "trigger": "10月7日KOSPI跌1.98%报6803.90点；韩国10月9日休市",
   "metric": "KOSPI收盘",
   "invalid": "高于6,886点或低于6,723点",
   "deadline": "10月8日韩股收盘",
   "check": {
    "key": "kr.kospi.close",
    "op": "between",
    "value": [
     6723.0,
     6886.0
    ],
    "market": "KR",
    "by": "2026-10-08"
   },
   "multiple": 0.84,
   "multiple_text": "0.84/0.86（日均波动 1.41%，近20日）",
   "vol": {
    "avg_pct": 1.41,
    "n": 20,
    "window": [
     "2026-09-07",
     "2026-10-07"
    ],
    "src": "新浪财经 全球指数日K",
    "dist_pct": [
     1.189,
     1.2067
    ],
    "range_est": 1.873
   }
  }
 ]
}